An Inconvenient Truth...is Net Zero the Wrong Front Line? Why the UK risks losing the war on building climate resilience.

The UK’s pursuit of net zero emissions by 2050 has reshaped policy, finance, and planning for over a decade, embedding decarbonisation targets into everything from national budgets to local strategies. Yet, as emissions fall (down 48% from 1990 levels in 2024) an unsettling reality is crystallising. While we advance on mitigation, our defences against climate impacts are crumbling.

In 2024, flood damage in the UK resulted in over £650 million in insurance claims, according to the Association of British Insurers (ABI). This figure is part of a record £585 million total for all weather-related damage to homes and possessions, which includes flooding, windstorms, and other issues.

• The record £650 million+ in flood-related insurance claims was driven by a series of severe storms, such as Storms Babet, Ciarán, and Henk

• Over 38,000 flood-related insurance claims were made for properties, vehicles, and businesses

• The total insured losses from just these three storms alone exceeded £560 million

• The £585 million in all weather-related damage claims was the highest on record since the ABI began collecting data in 2017. 

All the evidence points to the fact that storms are intensifying, but the same cannot be said to our efforts to build climate resilience across our cities and towns. This raises a pivotal question: Has the singular focus on net zero inadvertently sidelined the equally critical imperative of adaptation and resilience? As global warming, which is already at 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, locks in decades of disruption, the UK must recalibrate to safeguard lives, economies, and ecosystems.

The Climate Is Already Changing—and We’re Not Ready

The scientific consensus is unequivocal, even with aggressive global mitigation, the UK faces escalating risks from warming already in the pipeline. The Met Office's UKCP18 projections indicate that, under medium emissions scenarios, summers could be 1-6°C hotter and up to 60% drier by the 2050s, while winters may warm by 1-4.5°C and become up to 30% wetter, amplifying flood risks. Recent events underscore this. The 2025 summer heatwave claimed nearly 600 lives in England and Wales, while Storm Eowyn in October flooded 5,000 properties across the Midlands and North.

Key vulnerabilities include:

• Coastal threats: The Environment Agency warns that, without enhanced defences, up to 3.1 million properties in England could be at risk from river and coastal flooding by 2069, with erosion already endangering 1.5 million homes by the 2080s under current trajectories.

• Water scarcity: Demand could outstrip supply by the mid-2030s, affecting a quarter of England's population without new reservoirs and efficiency measures, per the National Infrastructure Commission and Environment Agency.

• Health impacts: Heat-related deaths, which hit 2,800 in 2024, could triple to around 7,000 annually by 2050 without urban greening, building retrofits, and early warning systems.

The Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) April 2025 Progress Report on Adaptation that assessed the Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) deems UK preparations to be "inadequate," citing fragmented governance, insufficient funding, and poor integration across sectors like health and infrastructure. The government's October 2025 response acknowledges gaps but falls short on any binding commitments, leaving local responders exposed.

To put this into perspective, in England alone, at least 6.3 million properties are at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea, or surface water, with projections suggesting this number could rise to 8 million by 2050 due to climate change. One in six properties in England and Wales are at risk, and one in 13 new homes have been built in high-risk flood zones in recent years. Additionally, over 10,700 schools in England are at significant flood risk, a number projected to increase to nearly 15,000 by 2050 due to climate change!

The Guardian revealed new analysis from the insurance sector will make many areas "uninsurable". The warning was stark, some towns may need to be abandoned as homes and businesses struggle to get insurance in areas repeatedly battered by storms and rising sea levels. Densely populated areas including London, Manchester and parts of north-east England, are likely to be worst hit. Experts also say London’s flood defences need to be updated urgently to protect the capital from devastating floods.

The Financial Blind Spot: Where’s the Money for Resilience?

The UK excels in mitigation finance. Green gilts raised £12 billion by mid-2025, the UK Infrastructure Bank committed £22 billion to low-carbon projects, and private capital flows hit £50 billion annually for net zero. It is the opposite case for adaptation, which is going to be absolutely vital for averting £20-50 billion in annual losses by 2050, receiving just a fraction of the funding. We seem to be putting all of our climate eggs in the mitigation basket, forgetting that we need to build in urban resilience to the changes to our climate that are inevitable.

Domestically, less than 10% of climate-related investments target resilience, per CCC estimates, with most flowing to emissions cuts. Internationally, the UK's £11.6 billion commitment (2021-2026) is evenly split between mitigation and adaptation, benefiting 89 million people with clean energy and resilience measures by 2025. In comparison, domestic priorities lag, with adaptation funding at just £500 million annually versus £5 billion for mitigation. Adaptation funding is also typically deployed post-damage, it is reactive and is failing to build the resilient future that our cities and towns need.

The private sector hesitates: Resilience yields "public goods" like avoided floods, hard to monetise without tools like resilience bonds or parametric insurance. Investors model carbon prices but undervalue "resilience dividends" e.g., £4 saved per £1 spent on flood defences. This mismatch leaves the UK vulnerable, as the significant financial losses from extreme weather in 2025 illustrate that climate change is no longer a distant threat but a current economic and social reality. The damages highlight the UK's insufficient preparedness and the urgent need for a shift in funding to finance robust climate adaptation measures. 

Net Zero: Essential, but Incomplete without Resilience

Net zero is indispensable, the CCC's Seventh Carbon Budget (2025) reaffirms it as the bedrock for limiting warming to 1.5°C. However, a mitigation-only lens creates vulnerabilities:

• Flooded solar arrays and overheated EV batteries undermine clean energy gains.

• Energy-efficient homes trap heat without ventilation upgrades.

• Resilient supply chains falter in droughts, as seen in the 2024 Thames water crisis.

Bill Gates, in his October 2025 memo ahead of COP30, echoes this: "Global warming will not lead to humanity's demise... but we must pivot from emissions obsession to improving lives through innovation and adaptation." He urges a balanced strategy, curbing emissions via tech like carbon capture while scaling resilience to heat, floods, and food insecurity, arguing that "human welfare, not just temperatures, should guide our fight." Gates' Breakthrough Energy Ventures has invested £2 billion in adaptation tech since 2024, highlighting the need for blended finance to protect the most vulnerable.

How We Rebalance the Equation

To forge climate security, adaptation must twin with mitigation, integrated via Labour's 2025 Green Prosperity Plan. Four steps, aligned with CCC recommendations:

1. National Climate Adaptation Framework: Legislate NAP4 with statutory targets, £2 billion annual funding, and cross-departmental integration, reporting to Parliament on risks in housing, health, and water.

2. Resilience Financing Mechanisms: Launch resilience bonds (piloted by UKIB in 2025 for £500 million in flood projects) and insurance-linked securities; mandate 20% of green finance for adaptation.

3. Empower Local Delivery: Impose a statutory duty on councils for resilience plans, with £1 billion multi-year grants and skills academies for green infrastructure.

4. Drive Economic Opportunity: Frame adaptation as growth: £30 billion in jobs from retrofits and water tech by 2030, attracting ESG capital via tax incentives.

A Shift in Mindset

Adaptation isn't net zero's rival, it's its safeguard. As Gates warns, "We can't innovate our way out of every impact without preparing for them." The UK must transition to a resilience economy, valuing prevention as prosperity. The storms rage now, if we don't shift our approach then those storms will ravage communities. We need to measure success on climate action through the number of secured homes, flood-proof schools and resilient communities, not just emissions. We can win this war, we just need to rethink how we connect climate mitigation and adaptation across our urban landscapes.